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Should the G Help the Big Three?
by John Sprovieri
December 1, 2008

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Much of the Big Three’s problems have been self-inflicted, but failing to act now could be robbing Peter to pay Paul.


The Ford Fiesta is one of the products that could boost domestic sales among the Big Three--if they can hold on long enough. Photo courtesy Ford Motor Co.
This week, we ought to hear more from the Big Three on just how they plan to use the $25 billion in federal loans they want from Congress. I bet a lot of unhappy underlings missed out on Thanksgiving turkey getting their corporate ducks in a row.

Just two weeks ago, Democratic leaders in Congress sidetracked legislation to bail out the auto industry and demanded that the Big Three develop a plan assuring the money would make them economically viable. “Until they show us the plan, we cannot show them the money,” said Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-CA.

GM, Ford and Chrysler must show that they have a plan for “viability and accountability.” They have to spell out how the money would be used, and they have to outline how they expect to be more competitive.

Whatever the Big Three come up with, Congress will likely put numerous conditions on any loans. Congress might seek a partial ownership of the companies, limit the salaries of top executives, or prohibit use of the funds for lobbying.

Should the federal government bail out the Big Three? There’s certainly no shortage of opinions. Opponents decry a bailout as nothing less than communism. They are loath to correct the mistakes of greedy, inept executives compounded by greedy, obstructionist unions. “Let the free market run it’s course,” they say. “Let dinosaurs go extinct.”

Others oppose a bailout on the grounds of fairness. Congressmen from Southern states—where the Big Three’s Asian and European competitors have set up shop—wonder why their constituents should help companies in Northern states like Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. Similarly, representatives of nonautomotive businesses that are also feeling the effects of the recession question why the Big Three deserve special treatment, when they do not.

“I cannot imagine [why] a worker in Alabama who does not have any health insurance at his company [should] be taxed to maintain a Cadillac health care plan for somebody in Detroit,” says Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-AL. He makes a good point.

Proponents of a bailout argue that failing to help the automakers will result in the loss of millions of jobs. According to the Center for Automotive Research, nearly 3 million jobs would be lost if the Big Three’s U.S. operations ceased entirely next year. That’s 239,341 jobs at the Big Three, 973,969 jobs at their suppliers, and more than 1.7 million spin-off jobs, including, perhaps, yours truly. Even if other automakers pick up the slack and dislocated workers find new employment, less than half of those jobs could be replaced by 2011.

Other bailout proponents would like to shape the debate as a class conflict. “If the G can help struggling banks, investment firms and insurance companies,” they argue, “why can’t it help autoworkers?”

Personally, I think the G should step in. To be sure, much of the Big Three’s problems have been self-inflicted, and there’s plenty of blame to go around on that score. (Read “10 Cars That Sank Detroit” for some examples of how the Big Three got where they are today.)

However, there’s more to the Big Three’s troubles than can be attributed simply to the “judgment of the marketplace.” In October, GM’s sales fell by 45 percent, Chrysler’s by 35 percent and Ford’s by 30 percent. But, Japanese automakers hardly fared better. Despite having a greater selection of small, fuel-efficient passenger cars in their product lineups—the vehicles supposedly in demand right now—Toyota’s sales dropped 23 percent, Honda’s plunged 25 percent, and Nissan’s fell by 33 percent.

In his testimony, Chrysler Chairman and CEO Robert Nardelli was on the mark when he blamed the consumer credit crisis for some of the Big Three’s problems. “Historically, over 90 percent of new vehicles were purchased or leased with financing assistance, and the lack of readily available financing has simply frozen sales,” he says. “Twenty percent of our revenue disappeared overnight when our finance company was unable to offer leases. These sales literally vanished.

“At Chrysler, 75 percent of our dealers rely on Chrysler Financial to finance their business, and 50 percent of all customers finance their vehicle purchases through Chrysler Financial. Normally, these loans and leases are securitized and sold in the secondary market to generate fresh liquidity and financing capacity. Today, there’s is virtually no secondary market, and therefore, no way to raise capital.”

(To read Ford President and CEO Alan Mulally’s testimony, click here. To read GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner’s testimony, click here.)

UAW president Ron Gettelfinger and the Big Three CEOs were rebutted at the hearing by Peter Morici, an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland. Morici advised lawmakers to let the automakers go through bankruptcy. Bailing them out will just delay the inevitable. “The government should let the Big Three fail not because we no longer need an auto industry, but because we desperately do,” he says. “What we do not need is the bloated, inefficient auto industry that we have today. By allowing the Big Three to fail, their capacity will be turned over to new owners who will be able to acquire the means of production at fire-sale prices and hire workers at globally competitive wages. The result will be a more efficient auto industry making cars that people around the world actually want to buy at prices they can afford. Such automakers could conceivably be profitable and could become the cornerstone of a manufacturing renaissance in the United States. In contrast, Ford, Chrysler and GM are never ending money pits that threaten to swallow a good deal of our economy.”

Bankruptcy sounds good in principle, and maybe it would be good—if it were just one of the three and the economic climate was different. But all three? In this economy? In practice, that could be disastrous. The automotive market research firm CNW surveyed 6,000 people intending to buy a new car within six months. The survey found that more than 80 percent of respondents would switch brands if the vehicle they wanted came from an automaker that went bankrupt. The Big Three will have a hard enough time selling their way out of this mess without that albatross, too.

Here’s something else to think about. Over the past three years, as the auto industry’s fortunes darkened, big banks like Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase helped the automakers sell more than $56 billion of new debt securities. Most of those securities were bought by investors like insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds, many of which have been staggered by losses on other investments. Some hedge funds already have been forced to dump investments into a falling market to meet demands. Read more about that here.

Bankruptcy might also foist the Big Three’s pension obligations onto the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. So one way or another, the G will have to step in. Failing to help the Big Three now could be robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Besides, if recent history is any indication, providing federal loans to the Big Three could work. In January 1980, President Jimmy Carter provided $1.5 billion in loan guarantees to Chrysler Corp., to the immense relief of some 100,000 workers. The law required the company to secure another $1.43 billion in private financing, concessions from banks and suppliers, and mandated $462.5 million in concessions from the company’s union employees, plus another $125 million from salaried workers. The company also sought exemptions from clean air standards that would allow them to meet the new requirements two years later than originally expected.

“While it is clear that this company needs a federal loan guarantee, the importance of the money is almost overshadowed by the importance of the government’s vote of confidence, [which is necessary] to keep our present creditors in line,” said Iacocca, in Congressional testimony at the time.

The turnaround in the company’s fortunes was dramatic. Just two years later, Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca announced that the company had turned a profit for the second quarter. In 1983, Chrysler paid off its federally guaranteed loans seven years ahead of schedule, and it had a genuine best-seller on its hands—an entirely new and innovative vehicle, the minivan.

The Big Three do have some innovative products in the pipeline—the Chevy Volt and Ford Fiesta, for instance. And, they’ve already made substantial cuts. Between 2003 and 2010, GM will have reduced its U.S. hourly labor costs from $18 billion to $6 billion. Ford has closed 17 plants and cut its workforce by 51,000 employees. If the Big Three need federal loans to get them over the hump until the economy rebounds—and it will rebound—then they should get them.


John Sprovieri
sprovierij@bnpmedia.com
Editor

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  Comments (11)Post a Comment
Title: Big 3


When are the Big 3 going to face up to the fact that they dug the hole that they are in. I surly know that my company would not get a goverment bail out. How do we deal with the delma, we lay off workers, raise health insurance,cut benifits, cut work force. And you know what I'm thankful to have a job in the current curcumstances. Why can't the Big 3 and their Unions cut a little too. If it wasn't for the greed of both of them they would not be in this mess. All great companies look at today but also look to the future and adapt their product to future needs. Instead the big 3 pocketed all of the SUV money and did not invest in the future. And we are expected to bail them out ?? Yes we need to but the Big 3 needs to make some cuts first. We have to many jobs in other sectors that are cut with no goverment help coming their way.


Title: Big 3 bailout


All foriegn car companies are supported bn their governments so let's level the playing field. Also, if the big three go under all the other car companies will raise their prices immediately - costing everyone more. Let's all remember how much money the southern states spent to get these plants in their states - the number I heard equated to around 76K per worker.


Title: Big 3


I believe too the 3 "big" companies are getting what they deserve according to what they've done in the past. Unfortunatelly I also believe the only solution is to get the loans from the Congress or else this can get even worse. I hope they make cuts and reduce costs first, and stop being soo greedy.


Title: Get intelligent America


As a resident of Detroit I cannot fathom the ignorance of America. First - States that enjoy foreign automakers plants have quite literally sold themselves in order to atttact the plants. Free land, extended tax abatements and state paid training for sometimes third world workforces are the norm. Second - all of you enjoying a decent wage must return thanks to the very unions that gave you good pay. America itself prior to unionization was a sweat shop economy no different than those countries we love to decry. Third - NAFTA and free trade in their essence have brought our economy to its knees - where do you think the jobs have gone? America - we cannot pay 29.95 at WalMart for a 19" TV, buy imported cars that are tax free and incentivized by the exporting countries governments or continue to sell scrap steel at a loss, export it with tariffs, only to buy it back recycled for a premium.

The big three have cut, and cut, and cut. The unions have accepted concessions. The big three sold what America wanted and what was most profitable - simple economics is based on supply and demand - if there was no demand from us spoiled Americans there would have been no supply.

Too big to fail is not just for banks. The purchasing dollars associated with domestic auto companies touches everywhere - not only in the US but around the world - not only direct paychecks,but in the cash flow process to the barber, the baker, the candlestick maker - and yes - also to all of you across America that are saying "let them fail". Taxes to local communities (sometimes the only tax base) charitable donations - and the fabric of small and medium businesses across America will be impacted by failure.

Folks - the big three is asking for loans - not free money. Let's get real here, let's stop the union bashing, the focus on company mismanagement and lets get on with the business of getting business moving again. The alternatives of no assistance are not pretty and they are real. To gauge your gut, ask yourself how many people you know in your community that are somehow touched by the big three. I think you will find your own opinion of the potential impact to their and your livelihoods real.


Title: Big 3


In response to Dave's Response. I do agree with alot of your comments. But I do come from a Union background being envolved with both the Autoworkers and machinist Unions and now with a none Union company. And I know for a fact that you have much better benifits then most of America's workforce so you do need to make compinsations as well. Companies went over seas to have work done because of high labor rates, tring to lower product costs so it's not Union bashing it's common sense busniess.And we all need to get in touch with our congressmen and have them fix NAFTA and Free Trade so we all force our self's to become the leaders in Mfg again not China or India. Bring the work back to the States. Yes the goverment should be involved like other countries but they should also offer Health Insurance as well. Heck GM pays $1600 per car in Health care and $1750 per car in benifits. How do we lower those costs ? and still build a great product and keep the work State side ???


Title: Cost Structure


Can one of these Union types please tell me how $71/hour in pay and benefits and lavish pensions nearly double to the competing automakers amounts to Union "concessions?"

That just seems ludicrous on its face not to recognize that the current pay and benefit structure of the "Bankrupt 3" cannot be maintained.


Title: big 3


i own a small automation company and times are getting tough. i have to cut back on my spending. i have to modify the way i do business to be competetive. my bonus is based on company profits if there are any. if i dont follow these simple steps i will go bankrupt. no one will be there to bail me out. there are more of us than there are in the big three combined. let them go and if there is profitability in what is left someone will take them over and run them as stated above. if not, let dead dogs lie. i dont see toyota and the like on congress door step. they are having the same issues. the only difference is they run their companies as stated above.


Title: BIG 3


How can this be no Unions ???
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200812011513DOWJONESDJONLINE000551_FORTUNE5.htm


Title: missing the point?


All are valid points below, however:

How do we lower the cost of wages and benefits per domestic car? Buy more domestic cars. Realize that the transplants don't have the burdens of legacy costs, as they haven't been manufacturing in the USA for the 70+ years that the big three have, therefore the price elasticity of their product is greater?

Going overseas to save cost is a good business decision - just realize that it causes further trickle down erosion in the US manufacturing and service sector. If the money is not spent here, it is not here - this leads to loss of jobs for US workers.

I am not pro-union, I am suggesting that the entire workforce and wage base in the USA is better off for what the unions have achieved in the past. Having said that, how do current union workers with adequate wages and benefits adjust to a 30% wage cut?

If you are in the automation business - who are your customers? Likely a manufacturing base which provides large volume goods. If people are not working, there is less money to purchase those products and therefore less capital to invest in automation equipment for production. Automation has also displaced workers -not a bad thing, just saying it because in the service sector those jobs cannot be replaced unless the money flow comes full circle to be spent - by working people.

$71.00 per hour is overstated - that is an average from high to low. Many workers have not reached that pay scale. Pensions are generous, but not lavish unless you were in the executive ranks.

All food for thought on how the failure of the largest employer in the world, and two close behind might cause a detrimental effect on life as we know it.

No big three, no supply base, no support requirements like IT/janitorial/lunches/office supplies/payroll companies/consulatants, no service sector sales like movies and restaurants and amusement parks and... hmmm.


Title: missing the point


The way I see it this will be a dynamic evolution of manufacturing. It is already gravitating from the north to the south. I understand your point on keeping people working. Big business has made sure that our jobs continuously are sent overseas. The big three are really big on this. We are giving up our industrial infrastructure more every day. If they are going to go under so be it. Things will be tough all over. We have been there before. I was laid off quite often in the 80's. I educated myself and moved on. Feeding them our tax dollars is not the answer. This is not what makes our country strong economically or socially. Businesses like individuals are not entitled to anything. They only are guaranteed the opportunity to succeed. We are not a socialist country. Well not yet anyway.


Title: Big 3


I admit I don't have all the answers or know what the correct answer here should be. But I do know that in my manufacturing job here in the midwest I am making less than $20.00 an hour (been with the same company for 20 years) & I pay $500.00 a month in health insurance for a family of 3. What are the employees of the big 3 paying for health insurance? What is there average wage? Dental insurance - none. Pension - none. I have to rely on my 401k - and look at what happened to that recently - it is all but going away. Everyone needs to cut costs, if you are not paying like I am for your health insurance - you should be. I don't want to see the economy sink any further, but to bail out these guys for running themselves into the ground is pure stupidity. How long have they been losing money? Hey I got an idea, if what you are doing is causing yot to lose money, maybe you should change how you are doing it. That's what we do where I work.


 
 


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