Not oil. Not money. The looming scarcity is people. It was no real surprise when Bill Gates said recently that it is difficult for companies like Microsoft to find enough qualified Americans to hire. So it's no wonder that Microsoft and others have set up research operations in China and India. It isn't about cheap labor, either; Microsoft would have done some work in those markets regardless, he said, but if hiring were easier in the United States, Microsoft would be doing more hiring here and less outside.
Sebastian Moffett, of The Wall Street Journal, says that Japan will be the first country to deal with a problem just starting to sweep the world-an aging population combined with a shrinking workforce. In 1985, only 10 percent of the people in Japan were more than 65 years old; that fraction will double by next year, reaching 20 percent. Regardless of the current unemployment situation in Germany, it will have 20 percent of its people more than 65 years old in 2009.