Remember Super Bowl XLIV between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts? With the Saints trailing 10-6 at halftime, Saints coach Sean Payton made one of the gutsiest gambles in NFL history, calling for an onside kick to start the second half. The Saints recovered the ball and drove down the field for the go-ahead touchdown. The team went on to win 31-17.

It was the sort of move that makes you a genius if it works or an idiot if it doesn’t. Across the country, governors are taking similar gambles on assembly plants. Sometimes, they pay off. Other times, they don’t.