China announced retaliation on $21.2 billion worth of U.S. exports at rates of 10 percent and 15 percent, to take effect on Feb. 10.

He signed two proclamations Feb. 10 to expand the existing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The orders end all existing exemptions for the tariffs, expand the list of derivative articles, and raise the tariff rate on aluminum from 10 percent to 25 percent. The changes are scheduled to take effect March 12.

Trump signed a presidential memorandum Feb. 13 to develop a plan for increasing U.S. tariffs in response to other countries’ tariffs, tax policies and any other policies, including exchange rates and unfair practices. The recommendations are due April 1.

On Feb. 14, Trump announced that he plans to impose tariffs on various imports beginning April 2. The rate on motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts would be “in the neighborhood of 25 percent,” while the rates on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would be “25 percent and higher.”

Tax Foundation, an independent nonprofit think tank, estimates the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would reduce U.S. GDP by 0.3 percent, the tariffs on China by 0.1 percent, the expanded steel and aluminum tariffs by less than 0.05 percent, and the automotive tariffs by 0.1 percent—all before foreign retaliation.

If permanently imposed, the foundation estimates the 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico would increase federal tax revenue by $880 billion from 2025 through 2034. The 10 percent tariffs on China would increase federal revenue by $241 billion over the same period, while ending de minimis treatment and subjecting all Chinese imports to existing and new tariffs would raise an additional $55 billion. The steel and aluminum tariffs would raise $105.5 billion from 2025 through 2034, while the automotive tariffs would raise $310 billion.

On the other hand, other tax revenues would fall when factoring in how tariffs shrink U.S. GDP. Revenue would fall even further if foreign countries retaliate, and it would fall further still if the tariffs were imposed on top of each other, as imports would shrink by a greater amount in response to higher tariff rates.

Tariffs are not some abstract concept that only matters to multinational corporations. Sooner or later, they are felt by consumers, as well. Before accounting for behavioral effects, the higher tariffs amount to an average annual tax increase on U.S. households of $625, according to the foundation’s analysis. Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs since the first Trump administration (and preserved by the Biden administration) have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per U.S. household, on average. The actual cost to households is likely higher, however, since the foundation’s analysis does not account for lower incomes as tariffs shrink output, nor does it factor in the loss in consumer choice as people switch to alternatives that do not face tariffs.

The National Association of Manufacturers—long a cheerleader for the GOP—is no fan of tariffs, at least when applied to our North American trading partners. Fully one-third of all U.S. manufacturing inputs come from Canada and Mexico. Seventy percent of what we import from Canada and 60 percent of imports from Mexico are capital equipment, industrial supplies and automotive parts that go into further manufacturing in the U.S. Indeed, the value of U.S. imports of manufacturing materials from North America is now three times greater than the value of materials coming from China.

“Manufacturers understand the need to deal with any sort of crisis that involves illicit drugs crossing our border, and we hope the three countries can come together quickly to confront this challenge,” the association said in a statement following Trump’s Feb. 1 announcement. “At the same time, protecting manufacturing gains that have come from our strong North American partnership is vital.”

ASSEMBLY’s readers don’t seem to want tariffs, either. In our most recent (and unscientific) web poll, 64 percent of ASSEMBLY’s readers believe that tariffs will hurt their businesses.

Will any of this matter to the people in charge? Probably not.