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VIDEO | USMCA Review Could Reshape Nearshoring Economics
The upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement could have significant implications for manufacturers that have relied on Mexico as a nearshoring destination, according to Patrick Van den Bossche, partner at Kearney and lead author of the firm's 2026 Reshoring Index.
Van den Bossche says Mexico has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of recent supply chain shifts, with imports into the United States rising 8% last year, driven largely by electronics assembly.
But much of that production still relies on components and materials sourced from Asia, including China.
He says much of the higher-value component manufacturing remains overseas, leaving North American supply chains dependent on Asian suppliers.
As policymakers evaluate the future of USMCA, Van den Bossche expects increased scrutiny of regional content requirements and sourcing rules.
“The U.S. is likely to use the review process to raise regional content thresholds, maybe even tighten the enforcement on transshipments, and then restrict non-market content, specifically from China,” he says.
If stricter rules are adopted, manufacturers could face higher costs and fewer opportunities to use Mexico as a straightforward nearshoring pathway.
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“These more stringent rules of origin and their enforcement could really reduce the easy nearshoring pathway,” Van den Bossche says.
According to Kearney's latest executive survey, 55% of respondents expect nearshoring to become less attractive going forward.
Van den Bossche says future growth in North American manufacturing will depend not only on assembly capacity but also on the development of a stronger regional supplier ecosystem capable of reducing reliance on imported components.
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